Momentum

Centre may just be the most undervalued position in the NRL. Just look at this finals series: the likes of Herbie Farnworth, Robert Toia, and Bradman Best absolutely tore it up on the biggest stage.

Perhaps the best quality of centres is their extreme versatility and the various ways they can impact a game. From being arguably the most important decision-maker in edge defence to taking those second or third hit-ups every set, to offering attacking prowess in the opposition 20, they really are tasked with it all.

That’s why I wanted to dive deeper into the statistics and build a model that can rate centres based on the many ways they can impact a game.

To start, I will present the model’s main graph, explain how to read it, and discuss which players stand out immediately. I will then dive a little deeper into how the model works, what the numbers mean, and some limitations. Finally, I will go through the top players in each variable and subcategory, finishing with ranking every centre in the NRL based on their 2026 performances.

So without further ado, here is my NRL Centres Impact Index for the 2026 season.

If I were to explain how to read the graph in one sentence: the closer a player is to the top right corner, the better the model rates them.

Looking at the two variables: vertically, the higher a player is, the higher their attacking X-factor; and horizontally, the further right a player is, the higher their fundamentals. The dotted lines represent the average NRL centre, creating four quadrants where top-right is best and bottom-left is the worst. The dots for each player are also colour-coded based on their overall rating, with red being the worst and purple the best.

Straight off the bat, a few players stand out. Herbie Farnworth sits nicely in the top right corner, scoring very strongly in both variables. Latrell Mitchell is also a major outlier, sitting well above everyone else in terms of attacking X-factor. On the opposite side, Valentine Holmes ranked last in Fundamentals, while Gehamat Shibasaki came in last for attacking X-factor.

Also noticeable is the heavy clutter of players around the centre of the graph. This is a product of the mathematics behind the model, but for now, just know these are the players that statistically ranked in and around the average NRL centre.

SKIP THESE NEXT FEW PARTS IF YOU WANT TO SKIP TO THE RESULTS AND DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE METHOD

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How the Impact Index works

Before we get into it, the statistics used were from CodeSports, so thank you to them.

Anyway, starting with the sample and data. The sample consists of 43 NRL centres who played at least 800 minutes in the 2026 NRL season. Not everyone included is a full-time centre, but all the players included played at least a substantial part of the season at centre.

Once the players were selected, 19 statistical measures were collected for each player. Each number was then converted into per-80-minute rates, and standardised against the rest of the group.

These statistical measures were then broken into two variables, and then further into subcategories within each variable. Appropriate weightings were then applied to each individual statistic and subcategory, giving each player an overall numerical rating for both fundamentals and attacking X-factor. These ratings were then combined with equal weighting to give each player an overall Impact Index rating.

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What do the numbers mean

The positional average for each variable is assigned the number 100. Therefore, if a player’s attacking X-factor rating is 100, they are exactly league average amongst centres.

10 index points represent one standard deviation from the mean (or average) of 100. This results in the congestion of players who fall within one standard deviation of the average, as discussed above. This same scale is applied to attacking X-factor, fundamentals, and overall Impact Index rating.

Therefore, a rating of 110 represents one standard deviation above average, while a rating of 120 represents two standard deviations above average. This scale creates an increasing scarcity of players as you move towards the extremes of the graph. The further a player is from the middle of the graph, the more unusual that player’s statistical performance is, whether it be good or bad.

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Limitations of the model

As much as I rate the model I have built, it goes without saying that it is just a mathematical model that focuses on quantifiable statistical output. It can’t fully measure things like qualitative data, such as defensive decision-making and positioning.

Similarly, I avoided adding any type of ‘eye test’ metric, as I felt that would take away from the objective nature of the model.

Obviously, as with all data, it has to be read with context. Although I did my best to account for the quality of teams each centre plays for, ultimately, playing for a better side will help your ratings. Additionally, the model does not account for games played at different positions. For example, Billy Smith’s data includes games played both at centre and on the wing this season.

Finally, this model is an Impact Index. I specify ‘Impact’ as it focuses on a player’s impact on any given game they play. This is different from a ‘Value’ rating, which would ideally account for factors such as injury proneness, leadership, etc.

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Fundamentals (Defence, Work Rate, Discipline)

As the name suggests, this is all about the fundamentals. The core, repeatable aspects of centre play that lay the foundation. It puts the highlight reel to the side and focuses on what a player can provide consistently on a week-to-week basis.

The three subcategories I built under this variable were: defence, work rate, and discipline, each given a unique weighting. To me, a fundamentally elite centre is as valuable as they come.

Here are the top 5 players on the Fundamentals Index:

Fundamentals Score

Rank	Player	Fundamentals Score
1	H. Farnworth	122.0
2	I. Tago	117.3
3	B. Best	116.2
4	T. Duncan	115.4
5	E. Tuala	109.9

Herbie dominates with by far the highest fundamentals score of any centre in the NRL. This shouldn’t surprise anyone who has watched him play; his work rate is relentless, and he rarely gets beaten by his man in defence.

Izack Tago is definitely the biggest surprise here. Not widely known for his defensive ability, he was probably the beneficiary of playing in a dominant Penrith side this season. Nonetheless, Tago was deemed to have only let in 3 tries all season to earn an elite defensive reliability rating.

Bradman Best comes in at third, and this is once again self-explanatory. When fit and firing, Best is an absolute beast on Newcastle’s left, both with the ball in hand but probably more noticeably in defence.

Tallis Duncan and Enari Tuala round out the top 5. Duncan excelled particularly with his defensive numbers, perhaps thanks to half the season spent defending in the back row. Still, the eye test says Duncan is an elite defender capable of holding his own against anyone.

For reference, here are also the top 5 players under each Fundamentals subcategory:

Defensive Reliability

Rank	Player	Defensive Reliability
1	H. Farnworth	118.5
2	I. Tago	118.0
3	T. Duncan	116.7
4	H. Savala	114.1
5	A. Brimson	113.0

Work Rate

Rank	Player	Work Rate
1	S. Sasagi	121.2
2	T. Koula	119.5
3	T. Chester	114.9
4	M. Timoko	114.5
5	H. Farnworth	113.4

Discipline

Rank	Player	Discipline
1	S. Sasagi	116.2
2	J. Samrani	115.2
3	B. Xerri	114.7
4	C. McLean	114.0
5	B. Smith	112.6

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Attacking X-Factor

It’s in the name; this is all about a player’s X-factor with the ball in hand. Think highlight reels. The player who can make something out of nothing. The player you look to get the ball to when in need of something special. The game-changers. That’s what this variable wants to measure.

The four subcategories I built under this variable were: running threat, creative ability, try production, and 1%ers. Once again, each subcategory was weighted uniquely to form the overall weighting.

Here are the top 5 players on the Attacking X-Factor Index:

Attacking X-Factor Score

Rank	Player	Attacking X-Factor Score
1	L. Mitchell	134.9
2	H. Farnworth	119.5
3	S. Sasagi	116.3
4	R. Toia	113.2
5	T. Koula	112.9

Latrell Mitchell, WOW. The model acknowledged Mitchell’s stellar first half of the season, rewarding him with a ridiculous score of more than 15 index points anyone else in the NRL. This really just shows the extremity of Latrell’s domination earlier in the year. The definition of a game-changer.

Herbie Farnworth comes in at second, another game-changer in his own right. There aren’t many better sights than watching him take every run like it is his last, terrorising any defence he comes up against.

Simi Sasagi rounds out the top three, some well-deserved recognition for just how dangerous he was moving out to centre this season. A nightmare defensive matchup for any opposition centre.

Premiership-winning Robert Toia also finds himself on this list, as well as speedster Toluta’u Koula. Both of these guys are lethal with the ball in hand and can create a moment of magic at any given time.

For reference, here are also the top 5 players under each Attacking X-Factor subcategory:

Running Threat

Rank	Player	Running Threat
1	L. Mitchell	122.0
2	H. Farnworth	121.0
3	R. Toia	117.8
4	T. Koula	115.4
5	S. Sasagi	114.2

Creative Ability

Rank	Player	Creative Ability
1	L. Mitchell	134.1
2	H. Farnworth	119.1
3	D. Gagai	115.6
4	H. Savala	114.5
5	B. Best	113.2

Try Production

Rank	Player	Try Production
1	L. Mitchell	133.8
2	R. Toia	115.9
3	B. Smith	113.4
4	C. McLean	112.8
5	S. Sasagi	112.1

1%ers*

Rank	Player	1%ers
1	T. Koula	125.8
2	B. Xerri	116.5
3	S. Sasagi	115.5
4	D. Gagai	114.9
5	A. Pompey	113.8

*(This refers to rare game-changing plays like intercepts, 1-on-1 strips, etc)

Every centre in the NRL ranked

So far we have just focused on the elite players, but what about your favourite teams’ centres?

Well, to finish the article, here is every centre in the NRL ranked based on their 2026 performance, according to the Impact Index:

Rank	Player	Overall Rating
1	H. Farnworth	124.8
2	L. Mitchell	120.2
3	T. Duncan	114.1
4	B. Best	111.9
5	R. Toia	110.9
6	S. Sasagi	110.4
7	T. Koula	109.9
8	B. Smith	109.4
9	I. Tago	108.8
10	M. Burton	105.5
11	J. Bostock	104.7
12	C. McLean	104.2
13	P. Alamoti	103.8
14	E. Tuala	103.8
15	H. Savala	103.4
16	K. Iro	103.4
17	M. Timoko	103.1
18	S. Crichton	102.4
19	J. Ramien	102.1
20	K. Staggs	101.7
21	T. Chester	101.6
22	D. Gagai	101.4
23	B. Xerri	101.2
24	R. Garrick	101.1
25	J. Purdue	100.7
26	A. Brimson	100.5
27	M. Suli	99.9
28	J. Samrani	98.9
29	J. Fifita	97.5
30	W. Penisini	95.6
31	D. Mariner	94.3
32	P. Herbert	94.1
33	J. Howarth	93.5
34	S. Kris	92.1
35	J. Wighton	90.8
36	A. Leiataua	90.8
37	S. Russell	86.7
38	Z. Laybutt	86.3
39	V. Holmes	84.1
40	N. Meaney	83.5
41	G. Shibasaki	83.2
42	M. Hiroti	82.6
43	A. Pompey	81.1